Chapter 1
Mind traps
Psychologists call them cognitive biases: predictable ways our judgement goes wrong. We notice what fits our beliefs, lean on the first number we hear, keep going because of what we've already spent, and assume we knew it all along. These shortcuts saved our ancestors time, but in a world of news, ads and big decisions they can cost us. Nobody is immune, experts included, but knowing the names makes the traps much easier to notice, in yourself as well as in others.
10 cards
See the 10 cards
- Noticing only what fits what you already believeConfirmation bias
- The first number you hear sways your estimateAnchoring
- Sticking with something because of what you've spentSunk cost fallacy
- 'I knew it all along', once you know what happenedHindsight bias
- Judging risk by how easily examples come to mindAvailability heuristic
- Only seeing the winners, and missing the failuresSurvivorship bias
- Beginners overrating how good they areDunning–Kruger effect
- One good trait making us assume the othersHalo effect
- Believing something because lots of others doBandwagon effect
- '90% survive' sounding better than '10% die'Framing effect